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Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study

Identifieur interne : 000335 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000334; suivant : 000336

Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study

Auteurs : Kedong Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Cheng Long [République populaire de Chine] ; Yan Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Tieyong Zeng [Hong Kong] ; Xinmiao Fu [République populaire de Chine]

Source :

RBID : PMC:7184396

Abstract

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late March 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here, we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiated control measures.


Url:
DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa046
PubMed: 32219398
PubMed Central: 7184396


Affiliations:


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PMC:7184396

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